RPT-ANALYSIS-The Navalny affair in Russia casts a shadow on German politics ahead of the elections


(Repeat the analysis of February 5 without modifications)

* Navalny’s jail shakes debate over Nord Stream 2 pipeline

* The CDU’s possible power ally, the Greens, want the pipeline to stop

* The new CDU leader Laschet stands behind the contested project

* CDU-Greens dispute could hurt Merkel’s successor as vote looms

BERLIN, February 5 (Reuters) – Have mercy on the next German Chancellor.

The poisoning and imprisonment of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has propelled Nord Stream 2 – a pipeline to transport Russian gas to Europe – to the top of Germany’s political agenda. This created a serious problem for Angela Merkel’s likely successor even before he had started, leaving the prospects for a viable coalition government after the September elections unfinished.

The man in pole position to succeed Merkel after the election, the new Christian Democrat leader Armin Laschet, firmly supports Nord Stream 2 but his future partner in power, the environmentalists The Greens, harden their opposition.

The Navalny affair has prompted the Greens to step up their demand to stop the gas pipeline and threatens to cripple the next chancellor, who will also have to face American opposition and even doubts from France, the closest ally of the Germany.

Navalny, sentenced on Tuesday to 3.5 years in prison after a Moscow court ruled he violated his parole conditions, was arrested on January 17 after returning from Germany to Russia where he was treated for poisoning with a soldier. nerve agent.

Her conviction prompted Greens leader Annalena Baerbock to pressure Merkel’s government to drop the politically charged pipeline project, construction of which has largely been on hold since December 2019 following a threat of sanctions. the United States and the withdrawal of a pipe-laying company.

“We will be pushing for this now and in the future,” Baerbock told broadcaster ZDF this week when asked if the project could not go forward with his party in the German government.

Over 90% of the project is complete and is expected to be officially launched later this year.

But the opposition of the Greens carries the weight of the opinion of the United States and many others in Europe. The pipeline’s dependence on services provided by countries bordering the overcrowded Baltic Sea means that there are many pressure points: withdrawals under US pressure by safety certification companies in Denmark and Norway could further torpedo the project, according to a source of the Greens.

Omid Nouripour, the Greens’ foreign spokesperson, told Reuters that Nord Stream 2 was “a bet against climate protection, a divisive subject for the European Union, a terrible bet for our energy security”.

The Navalny affair prompted the Greens to double their opposition to the project, which would bring Russian natural gas to Germany, from where there could be flow to other places in Europe.

“Novichok, the arrest of the leader of the opposition, 3,300 arrests in one day, massive police violence – none of this exactly weakens our position (against) Nord Stream,” Nouripour said.

He declined to be drawn to the prospects of a “Black-Green” coalition in Berlin with the CDU and its sister Bavarian party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), saying only: “People talk a lot about blacks. -Green. People still talk a lot.

Laschet, unlike the Greens, said in an interview with Reuters this week that Nord Stream 2 was essential to guarantee Germany’s energy security.

He said he was fearless by the flap of Nord Stream 2, saying he didn’t think the pipeline would be an insurmountable obstacle to coalition talks: “I think a consensus with the Greens, for example, is possible . “


Germany’s increasingly fractured political landscape means a coalition of the conservative CDU / CSU alliance and the Greens are the most likely scenario after the September vote, when Merkel steps down after four out of 15 terms. year.

“Since the new chancellor will have to devote a lot of energy to party disputes and coalition politics, the prospects for overtaking (on diplomacy) are dim, at least in the short term,” said Naz Masraff of the political risk consultancy firm. Eurasia.

“A more inward-looking Germany is what we will achieve (on the) international stage. Merkel will be dearly missed, ”she said.

To complicate the diplomatic challenge for Berlin, French European Affairs Minister Clément Beaune said on Monday that France had urged Germany to abandon Nord Stream 2, especially after the mass arrest of Navalny supporters.

German diplomats said they felt Beaune was expressing its point of view rather than that of the French government, and Berlin’s position was unchanged anyway.

Germany and Russia say Nord Stream 2 is just a business project. Washington has long argued that the pipeline would dangerously increase Russian influence in Europe. New US President Joe Biden believes this is a “bad deal for Europe”.

European Union lawmakers passed a resolution last month calling on the bloc to stop the completion of Nord Stream 2, in response to Navalny’s incarceration.

With so many forces lined up against the pipeline, there is talk in parts of Berlin that it may never be finished, instead either hanging forever a few miles from the German landing – or completed but never lit.

“Maybe the Navalny trial finally gives Germany the opportunity to turn a strength out of a weakness and rethink our position on the pipeline,” said the Greens source.

Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke Editing by Mark Heinrich


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